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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2017-09-06T12:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2017-09-06T12:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/13013/-1
CME Note: Associated with X9.3 flare from AR 12673.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2017-09-07T22:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.0
Dst min. in nT: -142
Dst min. time: 2017-09-08T02:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-09-08T07:32Z (-5.0h, +6.0h)
Prediction Method: DBM
Prediction Method Note:

probabilistic version of DBM: Drag based ensemble model (DBEM)

Model & CME input parameters:
CME take off date & time: 2017-09-06 16:00 +/- 30 min
CME initial speed: (1400 +/- 100) km/s 
CME halfwidth: (43+/-5) deg
CME longitude: (33+/-5) deg
SW speed: (475+/-50) km/s
gamma: (0.1+/-0.05) ×10-7 km-1

Notes:
Impact speed at target: 820 km/s (-113,+165; 95% confidence interval)

Lead Time: 13.95 hour(s)
Difference: -9.03 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mateja Dumbovic (Hvar Obs) on 2017-09-07T08:33Z

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